Smaller Seed, Bigger Series A: The 2026 Funding Bar and How Much to Raise

Leia em português: Seed menor, Série A maior

The median seed round in the United States fell from US$ 3.4 million in 2025 to US$ 3.0 million in 2026. Over the same period, the median Series A grew from US$ 13.7 million to US$ 17.4 million. The figures come from the Q3 2026 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor, with data through September 30.

Seen from the other side of the table, the message is simple: founders leave the seed round with less cash and have to reach a Series A that asks for more. This article walks through the numbers, does the math and suggests a way to size your round that does not depend on the check a fund puts on the table.

What the data shows

The quarterly report from PitchBook and the NVCA (the US National Venture Capital Association) is one of the most widely used benchmarks for the venture market. It covers companies headquartered in the US. The 2026 figures are year-to-date, January through September.

Four numbers tell the story:

Median	2025	2026 (through Sep.)	Change
Seed round	US$ 3.4M	US$ 3.0M	−12%
Series A round	US$ 13.7M	US$ 17.4M	+27%
Seed pre-money	US$ 16.0M	US$ 18.3M	+14%
Series A pre-money	US$ 48.1M	US$ 60.3M	+25%

The report sums it up in a chart title: median deal value "continues to rise across all series except for seed."

Seed got smaller, not cheaper

Here is the detail that changes the conversation: the check shrank, but the median seed pre-money valuation rose, from US$ 16.0 million to US$ 18.3 million.

Investors are paying more for each percentage point of the company and buying fewer points. Using the medians, the stake sold at seed looks like this (ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE, because a ratio of medians is not the median of each round):

• 2025: US$ 3.4M ÷ (US$ 16.0M + US$ 3.4M) = 17.5%

• 2026: US$ 3.0M ÷ (US$ 18.3M + US$ 3.0M) = 14.1%

At first glance that is good news: founders dilute less. But lower dilution comes with less cash in the bank. And seed money has one job: to get the company to the milestone that unlocks a Series A.

Series A got harder to reach

On the other side of the bridge, the bar went up. The median Series A round grew 27% and the median pre-money 25%. Running the same math on the medians, the stake sold at Series A barely moved: 22.2% in 2025 and 22.4% in 2026 (also an ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE).

So Series A investors are not asking for more of the company. They are putting more money into companies that are worth more. To get there, a startup needs to show more traction than it did a year ago.

The money is concentrated

Two more numbers from the same report help explain why the bar moved:

• In Q3, rounds of US$ 100 million or more were about 5% of deal count and took 75% of the capital invested.

• Artificial intelligence accounted for 82.7% of all capital invested in 2026 through September.

At the same time, the market remains open at the start. There were 8,625 first-time VC financings through September, already above the 8,507 for all of 2021, the previous record. Plenty of companies get their first check. The funnel tightens on the way to Series A.

What it means if you are raising

The numbers are US numbers, but the logic applies to any founder negotiating with investors who follow that market. Three practical consequences:

1. Your round size cannot be the check the fund offers. If the median seed check fell 12%, taking the number on the table may buy fewer months of runway than your plan needs. The right question is different: how much does it cost to reach the next-round milestone, with a buffer?

2. Your Series A milestone needs to be written down before the pitch. With a higher bar, "growth" is not a milestone. A milestone is recurring revenue, retention, gross margin or growth efficiency at a level that justifies the next valuation. Your seed investor wants to know that number and how many months it will take you to get there.

3. Diluting less is not the same as winning. Selling 14% instead of 17.5% feels better. But if the cash runs out three months before the milestone, the next conversation is a bridge round on worse terms. The dilution that matters is the cumulative dilution up to the Series A, not that of a single round.

How to do the math backwards

A simple way to size the round:

1. Define the milestone. Write down the number a Series A in your sector requires today. Use market data as a reference, not what worked in 2021.

2. Estimate the time. How many months does your plan need to go from today's number to that milestone? Be honest about sales cycles and hiring.

3. Calculate the burn. Multiply the expected monthly burn by those months. Include team growth, which is usually the biggest line.

4. Add the buffer. A raise takes months from first meeting to money in the bank. Keep that time in the runway so you never negotiate the next round in a hurry.

5. Only then look at dilution. With the amount in hand, check which pre-money makes the round acceptable. If the math does not work, change the plan, not the milestone.

This path may lead to a round that is bigger or smaller than the median, and that is fine. What matters is that the number comes from your plan, not from the market.

The questions that will come up in the meeting

With a higher bar, your seed investor runs the same math you should run, only earlier. Prepare answers to these questions:

• What is your Series A milestone, and why that number? They want to see that you know the bar in your sector, not a generic target.

• How many months of runway does this round buy? And how many of those months are left after you hit the milestone, so you can raise without rushing.

• What happens if sales take longer? Have a slower-growth scenario and say what you cut first.

• Why this amount, and not the check I offered? If your round is bigger than the check, show the math. If it is smaller, show that the plan still works.

Founders who arrive with these answers turn a valuation negotiation into a conversation about the plan. And the plan is what the investor is buying.

Bottom line

The 2026 market rewards companies that reach Series A ready. Seed got smaller and pricier, and Series A got bigger and more demanding. Founders who size the round from the milestone, not from the check, walk into the next conversation with cash and with numbers.

If you are raising in the coming months and want to run this math with someone who sits on the other side of the table, talk to Kurumi Ventures.

Sources

• PitchBook and NVCA, Q3 2026 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor, October 2026, data through 9/30/2026 (US): https://nvca.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Q3-2026-PitchBook-NVCA-Venture-Monitor.pdf

• Report page on PitchBook: https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q3-2026-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor

• Stake-sold calculations: Kurumi Ventures, using the medians from the report above (illustrative example).