Your Next Round Must Be Worth 1.5x the Last One: Valuation Step-Ups in 2026
Leia em português: Sua próxima rodada precisa valer 1,5x a última
Anyone who has raised once knows the question that comes in the next round: "what was your last valuation?". The answer sets the bar for the whole conversation. In 2026, that bar has a number.
The bar: 1.5x outside AI, 2.2x in AI
The PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor for Q3 2026 shows that the median valuation step-up, meaning how much valuation rises from one round to the next, was 1.5x for non-AI companies in 2026, up from 1.4x in 2025. For AI companies, the median step-up reached 2.2x, up from 1.8x. According to the report, that is the fastest pace since ChatGPT launched publicly in November 2022.
The data covers the United States through September 30, 2026. It is still a useful benchmark for founders raising in Brazil: the funds leading larger rounds there use the same comparison logic.
What happens below the bar
When a company cannot justify the increase, the result can be a flat round or a down round, priced below the previous one. According to Carta's State of Private Markets: Q1 2026, 11.4% of rounds in Q1 2026 were down rounds.
A down round is not the end of a company, but it has a cost: more dilution for founders and team, possible anti-dilution adjustments and a harder story to tell the next investor.
Waiting has a cost too
Holding off until the number looks good has limits. The same PitchBook report cites data from Forge, a secondary market platform: shares of companies that last raised in 2023 trade at a median 45% discount. For companies that last raised in 2021, the median discount is 59%.
The takeaway is that your last valuation ages. The longer you go without a new round, the less the market trusts it.
The math in practice (illustrative example)
Say your last round was priced at R$ 40 million. To land at the non-AI median, the next one needs to come in near R$ 60 million (R$ 40 million × 1.5).
That changes how you plan the current raise:
Start from the milestone, not the check. What level of revenue, margin or product supports a valuation 1.5x higher? That is the destination.
Map the path. How many months of operations, at what monthly burn, does it take to get there?
Add buffer. Fundraising takes months. Plan cash to hit the milestone and still negotiate without pressure.
Stress-test it. If the milestone slips six months, does the cash hold? If not, today's round is too small.
This exercise also helps calibrate today's valuation. A price that is too high now raises the bar for the next round. Sometimes a slightly lower number today is what makes a healthy step-up possible tomorrow.
Summary
Median non-AI step-up in 2026: 1.5x (2025: 1.4x). AI: 2.2x (2025: 1.8x).
11.4% of Q1 2026 rounds were down rounds.
On the secondary market, the median discount is 45% for companies that last raised in 2023 and 59% for 2021.
Plan today's round around the milestone that justifies the next one.
If you want to run this math with your company's numbers, talk to Kurumi Ventures.
Sources
PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor, Q3 2026 (October 2026), US data through 09/30/2026, pp. 4-6 and 16: https://nvca.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Q3-2026-PitchBook-NVCA-Venture-Monitor.pdf
Carta, State of Private Markets: Q1 2026 (May 2026): https://carta.com/data/state-of-private-markets-q1-2026/
Informational content only; not an investment recommendation.
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